Tiffany Jenks Update: Joshua Robinett Again Arrested

On a different section of this site, I’ve talked at length about the murder of my former flatmate, Tiffany Jenks.

One of the trio of people involved in her death, Joshua Robinett, was arrested on charges unrelated to Tiffany on November 11, in Multnomah County. He now faces new charges of Assault, Harassment. (At least, I presume it’s the same Joshua Robinett; the mug shot looks like him, and the age matches.)

Note: a prior version of this post, included Attempted Rape among the charges. That has been dropped, leaving only misdemeanor assault and harassment in what, from the few documents presently available, appears to have been a domestic violence situation. (Thanks to a friend who’s good at searching court records for puzzling this out.)

Continue reading Tiffany Jenks Update: Joshua Robinett Again Arrested

Uncovering COVID-19’s Most Risky Activities

I don’t have time to digest this in detail today, but this is important. It’s condensed from a press release from Nature (slightly edited to condense it):

“Reopening places such as restaurants, fitness centers, cafes, and hotels carries the highest risk for transmitting SARS-CoV-2, according to a modelling study based on data from the United States published in Nature. Reducing occupancy in these venues may result in a large reduction in predicted infections, the model suggests.

“Jure Leskovec and colleagues use[d] US mobile phone data (collected between 1 March and 2 May 2020) to map the movements of millions of people from different local neighbourhoods. They combine[d] these data with a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which allow[ed] them to identify potential high-risk venues and at-risk populations.

“The level of detail of the mobility data allowed the researchers to model the number of infections occurring, by the hour, at nearly 553,000 distinct locations grouped into 20 categories — termed ‘points of interest’ — that people tended to visit regularly. Their model predicts that a small number of these locations, such as full-service restaurants, account for a large majority of infections. For example, in the Chicago metropolitan area, 10% of the points of interest accounted for 85% of the predicted infections at points of interest.”

That’s a bit technical, but it says what we all need to realize: certain activities are higher risk, and high-risk activities account for the vast majority of the virus’s spread.

Today, this also would, most likely, include Thanksgiving festivities.

We have a vaccine on the cusp of becoming available. Patience will save lives. Be patient. Hold the course. The end may be in sight.

One caveat re the study: it’s data are from the first wave of the pandemic, in March and April. Some of the “points of interest” may subsequently have learned how to reduce the risk. But the main idea still applies: the vast majority of the spread comes from a small fraction of sources.

This finding is particularly interesting: “[C]apping the occupancy of a venue at 20% of its maximum capacity is predicted to reduce new infections by over 80%, but would only reduce the overall number of visits by 42%.”

Calculating the risk of Thanksgiving dinner

Want to know the risk of being exposed to COVID-19 at your Thanksgiving dinner? In a paper released today by Nature Human Behaviour (part of the Nature family of prestigious journals), a team from Georgia Tech has created a handy-dandy online calculator that can do just that—as well as calculating the risk of being exposed at any other social gathering of any size, anywhere in the U.S. (and in some other countries).

Cutting edge science it is not: the math is basic probability. But it’s a cool website to play around with, and the announcement is very, very timely.

It’s primarily oriented toward policy-makers trying to decide what types of gatherings to allow, but it’s also revealing to any of us who are simply curious…and concerned about stemming the rapid spread of the virus.

Simply use the slider to pick the size of your event, then hover the cursor over your county, and it will tell you, based on current infection rates, the probability that at least one person is infected. (Note: it does not work on all browsers. Here’s the direct link in case you need to copy it to another browser. For me, it works on Firefox, but not Safari.

For example, it tells me that in Portland, Oregon, a gathering of 50 people has a 38 percent risk of having one or more infected people present. Ouch. Having ten people over for Thanksgiving isn’t as risky, but still carries a 9 percent chance.

And it’s a lot worse elsewhere. In my brother’s county in Iowa, a 50-person church service carries a stunning 97 percent chance of drawing an infected person, and that not-all-that big Thanksgiving dinner has a 50 percent chance.

There are some caveats.

  • The figures are based on the presumption that cases are under-reported by a factor of 10, something that is backed up by antibody tests in some parts of the country, but not others.
  • It assumes that everyone who tests positive is infectious. I don’t know if that’s true.
  • It does not tell you the chance that you yourself will become infected.

But if you’re looking for a reason to wear a mask, avoid large (or even mid-sized) indoor gatherings (and crowded outdoor ones), and to postpone major holiday celebrations, this is it. Me, I’ll celebrate Thanksgiving on my own, looking forward to next year, hoping to maximize the chances that my friends (and their loved ones) will still be alive to do it.

50 Years Ago on a Beach in Oregon…

Today’s big news was the apparent success of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. That was fun and exciting. But, this week is also the 50th anniversary of Oregon’s most famous news story.

What’s that, you say? The passage of the nation’s first bottle bill? The beach bill? Any of the other things that put Oregon on the map in the 1970s?

Nope. And beware, this one might cause you to you laugh hard enough to make you blubber.

It’s the story of a good idea that went a bit off the rails. Enjoy.

BTW, the newscaster is still on the air.