Uncovering COVID-19’s Most Risky Activities

I don’t have time to digest this in detail today, but this is important. It’s condensed from a press release from Nature (slightly edited to condense it):

“Reopening places such as restaurants, fitness centers, cafes, and hotels carries the highest risk for transmitting SARS-CoV-2, according to a modelling study based on data from the United States published in Nature. Reducing occupancy in these venues may result in a large reduction in predicted infections, the model suggests.

“Jure Leskovec and colleagues use[d] US mobile phone data (collected between 1 March and 2 May 2020) to map the movements of millions of people from different local neighbourhoods. They combine[d] these data with a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which allow[ed] them to identify potential high-risk venues and at-risk populations.

“The level of detail of the mobility data allowed the researchers to model the number of infections occurring, by the hour, at nearly 553,000 distinct locations grouped into 20 categories — termed ‘points of interest’ — that people tended to visit regularly. Their model predicts that a small number of these locations, such as full-service restaurants, account for a large majority of infections. For example, in the Chicago metropolitan area, 10% of the points of interest accounted for 85% of the predicted infections at points of interest.”

That’s a bit technical, but it says what we all need to realize: certain activities are higher risk, and high-risk activities account for the vast majority of the virus’s spread.

Today, this also would, most likely, include Thanksgiving festivities.

We have a vaccine on the cusp of becoming available. Patience will save lives. Be patient. Hold the course. The end may be in sight.

One caveat re the study: it’s data are from the first wave of the pandemic, in March and April. Some of the “points of interest” may subsequently have learned how to reduce the risk. But the main idea still applies: the vast majority of the spread comes from a small fraction of sources.

This finding is particularly interesting: “[C]apping the occupancy of a venue at 20% of its maximum capacity is predicted to reduce new infections by over 80%, but would only reduce the overall number of visits by 42%.”

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