What the Georgia summer-camp outbreak tells us about COVID-19 & Schools

Today’s COVID-19 news contained the depressing information that 260 of 597 attendees at a Georgia summer camp had tested positive to COVID-19. As super-spreader events to, that was a whopper. It also bodes poorly for opening schools in the fall. (Image credit: Taliroll / CC BY-SA, creative commons license.)

But with everything else in the news today, details were slim. And even the best news sources can mess things up. So I went to the CDC journal article on which it was based. You can find it here. These reports are a bit dry, but generally readable, and this one was no exception.

Her are the basic facts:

Continue reading What the Georgia summer-camp outbreak tells us about COVID-19 & Schools

Risk and the Psychology of the New COVID-19 Surge

The rising number of COVID-19 cases has many causes, including the question of how many are being found due to increased testing capacity. (Likely answer: some, but not all. Hospitalizations are also rising, which means more people are getting sick at levels that would have been detected in the virus’s first surge.)

But another part of the answer has to do with what, in retrospect, should have been a predictable aspect of public psychology: as the pandemic has dragged on, COVID-19 has gone from new and frightening to “normal.”

One of the more esoteric fields I’ve dabbled in over the years is the psychology and economics of risk.

Psychologists have found that our fear reactions do not correlate well to the actual risks posed by a given hazard. Economics has confirmed this by noticing how people, in spending money to guard against risks, tend to spend disproportionate amounts on various types of risks.

Two examples are air travel and bicycle helmets.

Continue reading Risk and the Psychology of the New COVID-19 Surge

Why a Mask IS a Political Statement…Just Not a Partisan One

Unless you’ve had the news turned off for the past week, you know that the Mask Wars are on, with a lot of people suggesting that wearing a mask marks you as a Democrat while not wearing one marks you as Republican.

And superficially, there’s something to that. We have a President who declines to wear a mask in public and who not only taunts Joe Biden for wearing one, but at a recent press conference shamed a reporter for being “politically correct” when the reporter refused to take off his mask at the President’s request.

Continue reading Why a Mask IS a Political Statement…Just Not a Partisan One

Covid-19 & the Emperor’s New Clothes

We all know the story of the emperor’s new clothes. In it, the emperor is hoodwinked by rogues who take his money and make him…nothing. “Nothing” that his advisors, fearful of offending him, declare to be the finest finery in the land.

Then, the emperor dons the non-existent robes…and a little child calls him out, exclaiming, “But the Emperor has nothing on at all!”

Except…The original fable, by Hans Christian Andersen, is a little more complex.

Continue reading Covid-19 & the Emperor’s New Clothes

How to Make COVID-19 Evolve to Become Less Dangerous

Donald Trump says that even without a vaccine, COVID-19 will eventually fade away. And amazingly, the science says he might be right…though not if we follow his plan for reopening the country.

The science in question is evolutionary virology.

It says is that under certain circumstances viruses will evolve into less virulent forms. In fact, this might even be what happened to the 1918 Spanish Flu…though not until after it killed tens of millions of people.

Let me explain.

In order to be an evolutionarily successful, virus can’t just infect one person, they have to jump from one person to another. They can do that by making us cough, giving us diarrhea that contaminates other people’s food or water, or giving us sores that shed virus particles onto anyone or anyone we touch.

I.e., they make us sick.

But if they make us too ill, too quickly, they don’t get much chance to spread because we either collapse into bed, away from other people, or make others leery enough of catching the disease that they take suitable precautions.

Continue reading How to Make COVID-19 Evolve to Become Less Dangerous

Trump v. Female Reporters (and why he won’t wear a mask)

* Trump loves a strong visual. Image from The White House. Public Domain.

President Trump, as is his wont, preempted the news cycle today by abruptly ending a press conference after a testy exchange with CBS reporter Weijia Jiang and CNN’s Kaitlan Collins. But most of the press is over-simply describing what happened.

If you didn’t see it, it began when Jiang, who was born in China but has lived in the U.S. since age 2, asked why Trump insists on seeing COVID-19 testing as an international competition.

Trump sidestepped the question, then fired back, “Maybe that’s a question you should ask China.”

He then turned to Collins for the next question. But Jiang, wasn’t done, and Collins let her ask a very pointed follow-up: “Sir, why are you saying that to me, specifically, to ask China?”

It was a very good query, but Trump dismissed it as a “nasty question. ” He then he tried to skip over Collins to take a question from a different reporter.

But Collins wasn’t having it, and tried to ask her question anyway.

“No, that’s OK,” Trump said. (If you’ve not noticed, the “OK” part is one of his ways of dismissing people.)

“But you called on me,” she protested.

At which point Trump abruptly ended the press conference and walked out.

The reporting on this tends to say that he stormed out. But from the video, it appears that he was very much in control.

He wasn’t storming out. He was punishing the press crew for tolerating two uppity women. The message was very clear: if the press pool continues to let such women challenge him, he will punish them all, like a grade school teacher punishing the entire class when one person acts up. (I don’t know if they still do that, but that was a staple of my childhood.)

My guess is that his base saw it that way, too: as Trump, the alpha male leader firmly taking control…over women who don’t know their place.

Which brings me to my second point. Why doesn’t he wear a mask?

Because, now that everyone else visiting the White House, including the press corps, is required to wear masks, Trump as the only unmasked person looks bold, decisive, and very much in charge.

This was extremely evident in the video of him putting down Jiang and Collins. Their masks made them them look timid, weak, and partially faceless. Trump, unmasked, was the only complete human image in the video, and as such, again, very much the alpha male.

Please don’t read this as saying I approve. I don’t. Rather than being an actual leader and leading by example, he’s trying to project an image of leadership–and not a kind of leadership I approve of, anyway.

But the image of Trump unmasked and full-faced makes its point extremely dramatically, and whatever else you say about Trump, the man knows TV showmanship.

It is a clearly deliberate visual designed to reassure his base, while subliminally making a strong point to the few remaining independents.

The Corruption of Critical Thinking

This post is not directly about politics or COVID-19. But it should be, which is why I’ve tagged it for both.

When I was teaching at California State University, Sacramento in the late 1980s, the Cal State system was trying to increase the focus on classes that emphasized critical thinking.

If there was an official definition, I never saw it, but my department made it clear that the environmental studies law-and-public-policy classes I taught were exactly what they wanted.

I ran these classes not as lectures, but as discussions based on assigned readings, and my biggest goal was to challenge the students to think about the readings’ implications, rather than just taking them at face value.

One of my favorite moments was a discussion in which one of the students flipped whatever I was saying at the time back on itself and pointed out something I’d overlooked. “That’s what you taught us to do,” he said, when he realized how well he’d hoisted me by my own petard.

I don’t remember what grade he got for the course, but for that day, he definitely got an A+.

Since then, however, I’ve found that critical thinking is all too often replaced by shorthand substitutes.

Continue reading The Corruption of Critical Thinking

Scylla, Charybdis & COVID-19

In Greek mythology, Scylla and Charybdis were monsters guarding opposite sides of the narrow strait between Italy and Sicily. Chart a course too close to one side, and Scylla grabs you. Try to steer clear of Scylla and you fall prey to Charybdis.

It’s hard to think of a better metaphor for the modern moment.

Except…in the Greek lore, the two monsters acted independently. Now, it’s more like each isn’t so much trying to snare you for itself as to drive you into the other’s clutches. And it’s something we seem to be doing our level best to assist.

Let me elaborate.

Continue reading Scylla, Charybdis & COVID-19

Viewing the Curve

We’ve all heard about flattening the COVID-19 curve, but how many of us have actually seen the curve for our own states?

A week or so ago I got curious, but the best I could find for my state, Oregon, was a table listing each day’s new tally of cases.  I could use that to create my own graph, but I wasn’t that curious.

This morning, however, I heard a news report that about half of U.S. states were seeing declining numbers of cases. And the map that went with the report didn’t include Oregon.

Surprised, I decided the time had come to bite the bullet and make the graph. But first I checked Wikipedia, and to my great joy, someone had done the job for me. Here it is again, in case the version above was poorly cropped by your device

Continue reading Viewing the Curve

Optimism vs Despair on COVID-19 (and possibly good vaccine news)

In 1965, Admiral James Stockdale of the U.S. Navy was shot down over North Vietnam and became the highest-ranking U.S. officer to become a prisoner of war, suffering isolation, privation, and repeated torture until his release in 1973.

He went on to become a university president (and was a Ross Perot’s vice-presidential pick in his quixotic run for President), but history may best remember him for what has become known as the Stockdale Paradox, about how to survive harrowing times.

Continue reading Optimism vs Despair on COVID-19 (and possibly good vaccine news)